i'm sifting through copy of analysis of financial time series 2nd edition ruey tsay, , 1 of sections involves fitting ma model data (data set here). here's fit exact maximum likelihood according text, insignificant parameters removed:
rt = 0.013 + a(t) + 0.181a(t−1) − 0.121a(t−3) + 0.122a(t−9)
σ(a) = 0.0724
however, when try fit r...
> mew = read.table("m-ew.dat") > arima(mew,order = c(0,0,9),fixed = c(na,0,na,rep(0,5),na,na),method = "ml") call: arima(x = mew, order = c(0, 0, 9), fixed = c(na, 0, na, rep(0, 5), na, na), method = "ml") coefficients: ma1 ma2 ma3 ma4 ma5 ma6 ma7 ma8 ma9 intercept 0.180 0 -0.1318 0 0 0 0 0 0.1373 0.0132 s.e. 0.031 0 0.0362 0 0 0 0 0 0.0327 0.0029 sigma^2 estimated 0.005282: log likelihood = 1039.1, aic = -2068.21
as can see, ma1 coefficients same, ma3 , ma9 different, method = "ml", i.e. maximum likelihood. why this?
also, practical standpoint, while ma2 , ma4-ma8 may 0 (their 95% confidence intervals overlap 0), removing them model raises aic, lowers p-value regards ljung-box test on residuals, , lowers log-likelihood value. worth removing these parameters if such things happen?
in arima 1 can read: "the results different s-plus's arima.mle, computes conditional likelihood , not include mean in model. further..."
and tsay uses s-plus...
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